“Leather goods and footwear remain under pressure, although showing signs of gradual improvement”. This is the statement included in the mid-year update of the Altagamma-Bain Monitor on the global personal luxury goods market, produced by Bain & Company in collaboration with Altagamma. For personal luxury goods, growth of between 2% and 4% is forecast for 2026, bringing the market value to between 365 and 373 billion euro. In her comments, Claudia D’Arpizio focused specifically on luxury footwear. In short, Bain sees recovery coming in 2026 — provided that certain conditions are met.
Bain sees recovery in 2026
In the global personal luxury goods market, Bain forecasts a gradual recovery this year within a context that remains uncertain. In 2025, the market value declined slightly to 358 billion euro (-2% at current exchange rates, but +1% at constant exchange rates). For 2026, Bain anticipates growth of between 2% and 4%. According to the analysts, this scenario has a 70% probability, “assuming continued stabilisation in the Middle East, resilient local demand and a gradual recovery in consumption in China”.
The report highlights “significant polarisation in company performance”. Encouragingly, however, 60% of brands reported stronger results than in 2025. “The market is stabilising, but this does not represent a return to previous growth patterns: rather, it marks the emergence of a new rhythm”, explain Claudia D’Arpizio and Federica Levato, authors of the report. They continue: “Consumers are increasingly connecting with meaning rather than products and are placing greater value on experiences over ownership”.
Focus on footwear
Regarding footwear, in an interview reported by Footwear News, D’Arpizio pointed out that footwear has been the category most affected over the past two years. She then stated: “We expect a recovery, possibly beginning in the second half of this year. It is a category receiving considerable strategic attention from brands and from the luxury sector as a whole”. She also referred to the proliferation of models and the sharp rise in sneaker prices in recent years.
Brands are now reassessing their strategies, “trying to recalibrate prices, create accessible entry-level price points and strengthen the category”, D’Arpizio explained. This will not happen overnight. The Bain analyst also noted that investments within the footwear sector have involved both private equity funds acquiring footwear brands and luxury companies investing in the development of specialist teams in other areas to improve product development.
Photo: Hermès
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