Gucci will not return to growth until late 2026. Bernstein has cut its forecasts for Kering, reinforcing concerns expressed just days earlier by Barclays, which described the company’s guidance as “increasingly out of reach”. Also on CEO Luca de Meo’s desk is the agreement with Mayhoola concerning Valentino, a brand that continues to lose ground. Meanwhile, the luxury group controlled by the Pinault family is delivering on its promises: less than 90 days after its announcement, the Academy of Excellence is about to become a reality. So, while Kering’s Academy looks to the future, analysts remain more cautious about the present.
The forecasts
Bernstein analysts believe Gucci will take longer than expected to return to growth. They forecast that the brand’s retail sales will decline by 4 per cent in the second quarter of 2026. This would represent an improvement on the 9 per cent decline recorded in the first quarter, but “we believe the brand’s turnaround has not yet been achieved”, the research firm wrote in a report cited by MarketScreener. Partly because of the conflict in the Middle East, Bernstein expects “Gucci to return to growth by the end of 2026”. For the full year, the firm forecasts constant-currency retail sales to decline by 2.9 per cent.
Bernstein’s estimates come just a few days after similarly cautious projections from Barclays. Both sets of forecasts followed a conference call between the company’s management and analysts. Barclays stated that the company’s guidance appears “increasingly out of reach”, as reported by Borsa Italiana. It expects Gucci’s second-quarter revenue to decline by 5 per cent, while forecasting a 3 per cent fall for the full year. Despite some volatile trading sessions, Kering’s shares have performed relatively well. Looking at both the past month and the past five days, the stock has gained close to 3 per cent.
Valentino’s impact
The weak results reported by Valentino have once again brought the agreement between Mayhoola and Kering into focus. The brand’s performance has fallen short of expectations, the luxury sector has been downgraded, and the report published by Miss Tweed appears increasingly plausible. Citing sources close to the French group, the publication claims that Kering is reconsidering the acquisition of the remaining 70 per cent stake in the Roman fashion house. De Meo has postponed to 2029 the deadline by which the two parties must decide how to proceed, and above all whether to exercise the option to acquire the remaining 70 per cent of Valentino and become its sole owner.
Kering’s Academy looks to the future
According to Il Sole 24 Ore, on Tuesday 7 July, memoranda of understanding will be signed at the Milano Innovation District between Kering and eight institutions and training organisations: ACOF, AFOL, CAPAC, Galdus, HModa, ITS Cosmo, Istituto Modartech and Schola. The agreements will mark the official launch of the Academy of Excellence. Tuesday has also seen the inaugural meeting of the Academy’s “Think Tank”, which will oversee its strategic direction. The initiative will be led by Sabina Belli, CEO of Pomellato. “The luxury industry is undergoing a profound transformation: the traditional concepts of rarity and craftsmanship are now evolving towards broader and more complex meanings”, said Belli. She added: “Our aim is not simply to pass on techniques inherited from the past, but to transform traditional crafts into dynamic professions”.
Photos from the LinkedIn accounts of Gucci (left) and Kering (right)
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