What if Permira and Carlyle swap Golden Goose and Dr Martens…?

E se Permira e Carlyle si scambiassero Golden Goose e Dr. Martens?

What if Carlyle and Permira swap Golden Goose and Dr Martens? We are talking about 1 billion euros (or even more than that perhaps). In fact, Permira are supposedly in a leading position, compared to Advent, in the race to Golden Goose (controlled by Carlyle) buyout. They will be submitting binding bids by the end of February. Yet, allegedly, Carlyle are interested, in turn, in Dr Martens, controlled by Permira. Yes, it looks crazy, but a swap game might be (almost) doable in the end.

Golden Goose are doing well

At the end of 2019 (according to provisional data), Golden Goose’s consolidated financial statements reached over 260 million euros (that is, +35% compared to 2018). The company’s gross operating margin amounted to over 80 million euros (+67%). Such brilliant performance reinforced the brand’s excellent condition and, at the same time, stabilized its selling price, which will supposedly range from 1.2 to 1.4 billion euros. In other words, 15 times as much as Ebitda.

Transactions underway

As reported by MFFashion, advisor BofA Merrill Lynch will be sent, by the end of February, a few binding bids. Apparently, Permira and Advent are the only competitors at present. For the records, Permira are seemingly in pole position. If things were actually like that, they might possibly swap the brands. In fact, Carlyle are selling Golden Goose while showing some interest, at the same time, in Dr Martens, controlled by Permira fund (which aims at Dainese as well). Golden Goose and Dr Martens estimates are almost the same, as they amount to around 1.4 billion euros.

Expected earnings

Carlyle bought out Golden Goose in February 2017: purchase price was about 400 million euros. They could now sell the brand at 1.4 billion euros, therefore earning 1 billion euros. Permira, in turn, bought out Dr Martens in 2014: purchase price was 300 million pounds. They could now sell the brand at about 1.2 billion pounds, therefore earning 900 million pounds.

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