The second quarter mitigates the downturn, but between production, exports and turnover, the semester of Italian footwear remains decidedly in negative territory. The picture remains complex and the outlook still opaque. In other words, more than half of the entrepreneurs surveyed (58%) expect to end the year with lower turnover than in 2024. Here are all the Italian numbers for the first half of 2025 of the Italian shoe industry released by the Confindustria Accessori Moda Study Center for Assocalzaturifici.
The half-year of semester
Turnover is estimated to have dropped 5.6% between January and June (according to Assocalzaturifici members in the quarterly survey). Industrial production shows a decline of 9.5% according to the Istat index (-7.5% in the second quarter), with 85% of footwear produced in Italy is for export. From January to May, exports amounted to 4.89 billion euro (-2.7%) achieved with the sale of 84.5 million pairs (+3.2%) and the average price per pair dropped to 57.82 euro (-5.7%). The good news is the recovery of Germany (+12.4% in value and +15.8% in quantity) and the favorable trend of the Arab Emirates (+26.6%) and Turkey (+13.5%).
U.S. stable, for now
The bad news is the slowdown in Far East markets (-23%) and Russia (-14.4%), while exports to the US remain stable, with fears that the figure has been influenced by the rush of shipments by Italian companies to avoid a higher duty. “The real consequences of U.S. duties on sales will only be quantifiable with data from the fall months”, observes Assocalzaturifici President Giovanna Ceolini (in photo). She stresses the strong concerns of companies exposed on this area: in 2024, the U.S. was the second largest destination market for Italian shoes with nearly 1.4 billion euro.
Import and trade balance
Pure marketing activity boosted the increase in imports (+18.2% in quantity), with a surge in arrivals from the Far East (+45%). The trade balance fell to a 2 billion euro surplus (-15.8% on January-May 2024), and consumption fell slightly in the Italian market (only sneakers have a small “plus” sign). During the first half of 2025, 81 shoe factories are estimated to have closed (-2.4% on last December) and 1,392 jobs to be lost (-2%).
The new balances are 3,288 companies and 69,449 employees, respectively. On a positive note, in the second quarter, the number of layoff hours authorized by INPS for companies in the leather supply chain fell by -28.1% compared to April-June 2024. As Assocalzaturifici writes: “Expectations for the second half of 2025 remain cautious. The absence of major news in the international economic and geopolitical landscape and international trade tensions triggered by U.S. tariffs do not allow for easy optimism”.
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